Friday, June 17, 2011

Is blackberry falling from grace? My take on its ability to survive.

Recently stock market analysts are calling blackberry a "one trick pony" and today it seems more and more probable that Blackberry will not be able to bounce back.  The PlayBook, their take on the newly created tablet market, is an abysmal failure.  Their mobile phones, their "stronghold" carved out of their ability to create a fast and free communication app between blackberry devices, is slowly but sure also in the decline.  Their 'one trick pony', the messenger service is no longer a novelty.  With apple's and (even) android's leap in user interface in addition to Windows phone OS building up an admirable base, the messenger weapon that blackberry had is poised to become irrelevant.  Apple is on the verge of releasing the iMessages, an apple device to apple device communicator and its almost a given that android and windows will follow suit.  So what other tricks does blackberry have...?  They thought the playbook would do it...but the sales have been terrible.  No longer being able to tout the messenger service, Blackberry looks all but doomed.  And unlike Nokia, which is partnering with windows to create new devices that have a microsoft OS on them (and hence being pumped with millions from microsoft), blackberry has no one.  New age businessmen and upcoming innovators have already shown immense interest in apple's devices and those who carry a blackberry are clearly people who had it pre apple and android era.
So what can blackberry do? They must upgrade their phone's devices to the OS found in their playbook. While the playbook was no match for the lighter and far more app friendly ipad, reviewers loves the blackberry QNX OS found in the playbook.  So for success: they must QUICKLY develop a QNX like OS which may be able to revive a dying company.  However, based on industry trends, it is unlikely that Blakberry will be able to develop and push new OS based on QNX anytime before winter 2012.  Long wait providing plenty of time for apple, android, and now Nokia + microsoft to dominate the field.
If they don't succeed with QNX based OS for their newer devices, we can wave good bye to yet another phone company.  It goes to show that in the mobile world, fast response means everything and black berry was too slow to respond to an ever changing mobile field post apple iphone and android devices.

I say <20% chance of survival for blackberry beyond 2013.  What do you guys think?

3 comments:

Hyperthread said...

It may still survive a while because of the way it is being used in the Enterprise. No wonder it has to survive the storm from iPhone, iPad and Android, yet dont forget the fact that it still is a good email device and is considered highly secured. Indeed it is losing the smart phone war yet may not end up sinking that fast. The reign of blackberry may be over , yet it can come back if Research In Motion (RIM) thinks about solidifying its niche.

NDscitechguy (aka Pesh) said...

Yes. I guess their communications dept is their main strength. But my point is that other operating systems are begining to seriously address communications and are going to address is better. They need to expand their niche to stay relevant. Good point though dude.

NDscitechguy (aka Pesh) said...

Yes. I guess their communications dept is their main strength. But my point is that other operating systems are begining to seriously address communications and are going to address is better. They need to expand their niche to stay relevant. Good point though dude.